Thursday, July 30, 2026

U.S. Drought Monitor: Some Increse In Intensity In The Nation's Breadbasket

From the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, July 30: 

This Week's Drought Summary

This U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) week saw very hot and dry conditions across areas of the Western U.S. and the Plains states where average temperatures soared well above normal levels—significantly elevating evaporate demand, especially across the Upper Midwest, Northern Plains, Colorado, and the Texas Panhandle where conditions deteriorated rapidly. Elsewhere, heavy rains across areas of the Mid-Atlantic states, Southeast, and the South, led to widespread improvements on the map in drought-affected areas. In North Carolina, rainfall totals for the week ranged from 3 to 8+ inches across the state leading to a significant improvement in drought-related conditions statewide. In the Northeast, recent isolated shower activity helped to improve drought conditions; however, the impacts of the longer-term drought continue to affect groundwater conditions in areas of Rhode Island and Massachusetts. In the Upper Midwest, drought expanded and intensified on the map, especially across Minnesota and Wisconsin where composite flash drought indicators were showing severe to extreme flash drought conditions during the past week. Out West, the Four Corners states continued to receive beneficial monsoonal rainfall with isolated areas receiving 2 to 4 inches. In portions of Arizona and western New Mexico, precipitation during the past 30-day period has been above normal, boosting streamflow and soil moisture levels while improving vegetation health. In the Pacific Northwest, short-term dryness has led to a dip in soil moisture and streamflow levels in areas of western Oregon and Washington. In the Great Basin, recent monsoonal rains have provided some minor relief to drought-affected areas of eastern Nevada.

In terms of reservoir storage in the West, California’s reservoirs continue to be at or above historical averages for the date (July 28), with the state’s two largest reservoirs, Lake Shasta and Lake Oroville seeing slight decreases over the past week, at 99% and 108% of average, respectively. In the Southwest, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation is reporting (July 26) Lake Powell at 23% full (33% of average for the date; lowest on record for the date in the last 30 years), Lake Mead at 27% full (45% of average for the date; lowest on record for the date in the last 30 years), and the total Colorado River system (July 26) at 33% of capacity (compared to 39% of capacity the same time last year). According to the Salt River Project, the Salt River reservoir system in Arizona is currently 48% full, Verde River system 59% full, and the total reservoir system at 50% full (compared with 59% full a year ago)....

....MUCH MORE

Published July 30

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/20260728/20260728_conus_none.png 

Published July 23

Drought Monitor for conus 

Because of the decrease in intensity and coverage in the eastern U.S. the experimental Drought Severity and Coverage Index (DSCI) only ticked up three points to 155 on the 0 - 500 scale.

However! Our interest is in the effects upon foodstuff commodities so the east coast doesn't matter as much. Using wheat as an example, bread wheat (winter) could be setting up for reduced yields in the next harvest;

https://agindrought.unl.edu/data/v2/png/20260728/winter%20wheat%20drought.png 

Whereas pasta wheat (Durum) looks to be keeping your rigatoni abundant:

Map of durum wheat areas in drought 

Kansas has been attempting to return to its wheat roots by planting the higher value durum but apparently not enough to show up on the map, yet. From the Lawrence (KS) Times, July 26: 

A new Kansas-grown wheat could soon be in your box of noodles 

A new type of wheat dotting Kansas fields has a special use: making pasta. Wheat acres have continuously declined in Kansas. The noodle-focused wheat variety could change that. 

Kansas farmers could soon play a role in spaghetti night or be the source of macaroni salad for the community cook out....