From the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, April 7:
1.3%
Latest GDPNow Estimate for 2026:Q1
Updated: April 07, 2026
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2026 is 1.3 percent on April 7, down from 1.6 percent on April 2. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of first-quarter personal consumption expenditures growth and first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 1.4 percent and 6.6 percent, respectively, to 1.3 percent and 5.5 percent.
As noted exiting from the last update:
...And even more troubling, as we've observed over the years, the Atlanta Fed's model tends to run hot until it converges with the first (flash) actual GDP report.
Hmmm...
