This is why I was thinking about stagflation in the post immediately below:
"The End of Artificial Employment" (special bonus: what causes stagflation?)
From the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's GDPNow, April 2:
1.6%
Latest GDPNow Estimate for 2026:Q1
Updated: April 02, 2026
More troubling is how we got here:
Evolution of Atlanta Fed GDPNow real GDP estimate for 2026:Q1
Quarterly percent change (SAAR)
The commentaries for the 75 most recent GDPNow updates are below, starting with the latest estimate.
April 02, 2026
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2026 is 1.6 percent on April 2, down from 1.9 percent on April 1. After this morning’s international trade report from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, an increase in the nowcast of first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 4.9 percent to 6.6 percent was more than offset by decreases in the nowcasts of first-quarter personal consumption expenditures growth from 1.5 percent to 1.4 percent and the contribution of net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth from -0.23 percentage points to -0.76 percentage points.
....MUCH MORE
And even more troubling, as we've observed over the years, the Atlanta Fed's model tends to run hot until it converges with the first (flash) actual GDP report.
Hmmm...
