Not holding Bloomberg's market-meltdown-causing Nvidia report against them, we go back to the Borg.
From Bloomberg, September 2/3:
- Scapegoating’ of yen carry trade ignores bigger, deeper trend
- BOJ hikes and impact on global capital far from simple: Husain
Arif Husain says he was early in sounding the alarm on Japan’s rising interest rates last year, which he described as the “San Andreas fault of finance.”
The head of fixed-income at T. Rowe Price is now warning that investors have “just seen the first shift in that fault, and there is more” market volatility ahead after the nation’s rate hike in July helped trigger a sharp reversal of the yen carry trade.
The yen rose more than 1% against the US dollar on Tuesday, touching 145.29 per dollar and snapping a four-day losing streak.
While a hawkish Bank of Japan and concern around slowing US growth helped trigger strong demand for the yen on Aug. 5, investors may be ignoring a deeper root of the global tumble on stocks, currencies and bonds, Husain wrote in a report. This includes loads of Japanese money invested offshore that risks getting shipped back home as rates climb ever higher in the world’s fourth-largest economy.
Read more: A $3 Trillion Threat to Global Financial Markets Looms in Japan
“The scapegoating of the yen carry trade ignores the start of a bigger and deeper trend,” according to Husain, whose firm oversees about $1.57 trillion in assets. “BOJ monetary tightening and its impact on the flow of global capital is far from simple, and it will have a large influence over the next few years.”
The sudden abandonment of the yen carry trade, which involves selling Japan’s currency to invest in higher-yielding assets, helped sink the Nikkei 225 Stock Average by the most since 1987 and fueled a surge in the VIX index of stock market volatility. Economists briefly predicted the Federal Reserve would need to cut interest rates by half a point or act between meetings — the kind of step usually reserved for a crisis....
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