Thursday, September 12, 2024

Capital Markets: "The ECB and the $1.10 level in the Euro"

From Marc to Market:

Overview:  The US dollar is narrowly mixed against the G10 currencies. The dollar bloc, Japanese yen, and Swiss franc are sporting slightly softer profiles, while the European currencies enjoy a firmer today. There is more than 3 bln euro in options struck at $1.10 that expire today that still seem to be in play. And there is a large option at GBP1.30 that expires Monday. The ECB's rate decision and President Lagarde's press conference are the highlights from the remainder of the session. Meanwhile, the US PPI will help economists finalize forecast for the PCE deflator, and the US Treasury will sell $22 bln of 30-year bonds after strong demand yesterday's 10-year note sale and Tuesday's three-year note offering. The market has continued to pare speculation of a 50 bp Fed cut next week.

Yesterday's strong US equity market gains helped lift Asia Pacific bourses today. Japanese, South Korean, and Taiwanese indices rallied more than 2% today, while Australia, New Zealand, and India up more than 1%. Chinese markets were the notable exception extended their recent losses. Europe's Stoxx 600 is up almost 1%, which if sustained, would be the largest gain in almost a month. US index futures are firmer. Benchmark 10-year yields are 1-2 bp higher in Europe, while the 10-year US yield is up for a second day after falling for the previous seven session. It is near 3.68% after finishing last week slightly below 3.71%. The two-year yield is about 3.67% a couple basis points higher on the week. Gold is trading quietly in a $2511-$2522 range. After falling to almost $65 a barrel on Tuesday, the low for the year, October WTI steadied yesterday and is firmer today, pushing back above $68. Initial resistance is seen in the $69-$70 area....

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