Sunday, October 22, 2023

"Volkswagen cuts profit outlook on hit from raw material hedges"

From Reuters via U.S. News & World Report, October 20:

Volkswagen cut its profit margin outlook for the current year on Friday, blaming negative effects from raw materials hedges at the end of the third quarter.

Like many other industrial firms, carmakers hedge against commodity price swings, potentially causing non-cash gains or losses, usually at the end of each quarter.

For Volkswagen, Europe's largest carmaker, this led to a 2.5-billion euro ($2.7 billion) non-cash loss that it will be unable to offset by the end of the year, it said in a statement along with some preliminary third-quarter results.

The company said it now expected an operating profit before special items in 2023 that would be at the prior year level of 22.5 billion euros, indicating a return on sales of 7.0% to 7.3%, down from 7.5% to 8.5% forecast previously....

....MUCH MORE

Not the worst cause of a loss. it just means the price of the inputs went down and unless they get caught in a whipsaw/saw tooth pattern—down-up-down-up, they make it back on lower cost of product. 

On the other hand the decline from over €190 to 115 (VOW, ordinary, voting) over the last year tells us something more is going on.

Perhaps this plays a part: "Volkswagen Cuts EV Output at German Sites as Demand Craters", Bloomberg Sept. 26.