Tuesday, October 24, 2023

"Analysis:China to choose fiscal muscle over big reforms to revive economy"

From Reuters via ChannelNewsAsia, October 24:

China is set to unleash fresh fiscal stimulus to shore up its economic recovery, drawing on a well-used playbook that relies heavily on debt and state spending but falls short on the deeper reforms called for by a growing number of analysts.

Some government advisers are recommending China lifts its 2024 budget deficit target beyond the 3 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) set for this year, which would allow Beijing to issue more bonds to revive the economy, policy insiders and economists have told Reuters.

The world's second-largest economy grew faster than expected in the third quarter, improving the chances Beijing can meet its growth target of around 5 per cent for 2023.

But while the upbeat surprise gave battered China investors some cause for cheer, there are deeper concerns about the continued demise of private sector activity and the lack of longer-term reforms needed to shift the economy to consumer-led growth.

For now, the focus remains on sustaining a fragile recovery to avoid economic disaster....

....MUCH MORE

The Shanghai/Shenzhen CSI 300 index ticked up a third of a percent today but year-to-date this has been a brutal time to hold these stocks, and if stocks are forward-looking I'm not sure what the biggest Chinese stocks are seeing.

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