If there is a relief rally after the budget gets worked out that should mark the intermediate-term top, before the reality of the U.S. Treasury having to refill their Treasury General Account begins to sink into the market's collective consciousness.
Here's the TGA via the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank's FRED database. The Treasury has been drawing down their balance which adds liquidity to the rest of the system. After they can start increasing the debt again they will build the balance back up, reducing liquidity:
Most of the Treasury's "checking account" is was held at the New York Fed with a few billion at the other Fed banks. The balance is at $154.81 billion as of the last reporting date, down from $572.62 billion when when the Treasury crossed the magic line in late January.
This fellow is pointing out the head-n-shoulders pattern in the SPDR Semicondutor ETF where Nvidia is the largest capitalization:
One year later, bulls are falling for another hype bubble.
— Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) May 14, 2023
Artificial intelligence is an act of desperation.
At least it's named appropriately. pic.twitter.com/6woDAC5tR1
but for our purposes Apple, which is about five bucks below its all-time high, is even more important.
So three things to keep an eye on:
1) the VIX trading down to maybe a 14-handle as happy, happy, joy, joy complacency sets in
2) AAPL turning over
3) the Treasury refilling the TGA
