Rare Earth Feedstock Deficit For Neodymium Magnets Forecast To Reach 60,000 Tonnes Annually Within 7 Years

 Not yet but visible on the horizon.

From Adamas Intelligence, May 2:

NEW REPORT: Rare Earth Magnet Market Outlook to 2040

A comprehensive deep dive into the global market for NdFeB permanent magnets and the rare earth elements they contain

Adamas Intelligence is pleased to announce the publication of its latest annual report, titled “Rare Earth Magnet Market Outlook to 2040”. This report is a must-read for anyone with a professional interest in the rare earth and permanent magnet industries.

Following a latent demand pop in 2021 that saw the materialization of some pent-up demand from the year prior, Adamas Intelligence data indicates that global consumption of NdFeB magnets increased just 1.9% year-over-year in 2022, suppressed by global economic headwinds and regional pandemic-related challenges.

Nevertheless, from 2023 through 2040 we forecast that global demand for NdFeB magnets will increase at a CAGR of 7.5%, bolstered by double-digit growth from electric vehicle and wind power sectors, translating to comparable demand growth for the critical rare earths elements (i.e., didymium, dysprosium and terbium) these magnets contain.

Over the same period, we forecast that global production of didymium, dysprosium and terbium (the so-called magnet rare earths) will collectively increase at a slower CAGR of 5.2% as the supply side of the market increasingly struggles to keep up with rapidly growing demand.

In this report, we provide a detailed overview of the global NdFeB alloy, powder, magnet and magnet rare earth oxide markets, including a breakdown of historical production, consumption and prices from 2015 through 2022. Next, we unravel the anticipated near-term evolution of this increasingly dynamic value chain and forecast global supply, demand and prices from 2023 through 2040 under three distinct scenarios.

Among the findings of our latest analysis:

• Market for Magnet Rare Earth Oxides to Increase Five-Fold by 2040: With total magnet rare earth oxide consumption forecasted to increase at a CAGR of 5.2% (versus a higher 7.0% for demand) and prices projected to increase at CAGRs of 3.3% to 5.2% over the same period, Adamas Intelligence forecasts that the value of global magnet rare earth oxide consumption will increase five-fold by 2040, from an estimated US $10.8 billion this year to US $56.7 billion by 2040.

• Annual NdFeB Undersupply of 246,000 Tonnes Expected by 2040: Constrained by increasingly tight availability of magnet rare earth feedstocks, we forecast that global undersupply of NdFeB alloy and powder will amount to 60,000 tonnes annually by 2030 and 246,000 tonnes annually by 2040 – an amount almost equal to last year’s total global NdFeB alloy and powder production....

....MUCH MORE

Keeping in mind that the above is an advertisement for a report from a research shop, the issue they address is definitely on it's way. That is the reason we pointed out that Tesla is working to reduce the need for the neodymium/iron/boron magnets in their vehicles:

 Rare Earths: Reminder, Combined Brazilian and Vietnamese Resource Base Approximately Equals China's Proven and Probable Reserves

If interested see also "Publication of a Report on the Effect of Imports of Neodymium-Iron-Boron (NdFeB) Permanent Magnets on the National Security: An Investigation Conducted Under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, as Amended"at the U.S. Federal Register.

Damn headlines are almost as wordy as the ones the Daily Mail uses. Almost.