"Macroeconomic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic" ($14 Trillion in the U.S.)

 That's the title of the paper at "Economic Modelling, Volume 120, March 2023, 106147"

Here's the story by two of the authors via Asia Times, May 17:

Covid-19 will cost the US economy $14 trillion
Research shows pandemic was way more devastating to US economy than 2008 Great Recession, with many impacts still unmeasured

The economic toll of the Covid-19 pandemic in the US will reach US$14 trillion by the end of 2023, our team of economists, public policy researchers and other experts have estimated.

Putting a price tag on all the pain, suffering and upheaval Americans and people around the world have experienced because of Covid-19 is, of course, hard to do. 

More than 1.1 million people have died as a result of Covid-19 in the US, and many more have been hospitalized or lost loved ones. Based on data from the first 30 months of the pandemic, we forecast the scale of total economic losses over a four-year period, from January 2020 to December 2023.

To come up with our estimates, our team used economic modeling to approximate the revenue lost due to mandatory business closures at the beginning of the pandemic.

We also used modeling to assess the economic blows from the many changes in personal behavior that continued long after the lockdown orders were lifted – such as avoiding restaurants, theaters and other crowded places.

Workplace absences, and sales lost due to the cessation of brick-and-mortar retail shopping, air travel and public gatherings, contributed the most. At the height of the pandemic, in the second quarter of 2020, our survey indicates that international and domestic airline travel fell by nearly 60%, indoor dining by 65% and in-store shopping by 43%.

We found that the three sectors that lost the most ground during the first 30 months of the pandemic were air travel, dining, and health and social services, which contracted by 57.5%, 26.5% and 29.16%, respectively.

These losses were offset to a degree by surges in online purchases, a series of large fiscal stimulus and economic relief packages and an unprecedented expansion of the number of Americans working from home – and thus were able to keep doing jobs that might otherwise have been cut....

....MUCH MORE

And the paper via ScienceDirect (open access)