Saturday, May 6, 2023

"Germany's economic time bomb: the labor crisis"

From Deutsche-Welle, May 5:

It's one of the most lamented problems in Germany: a lack of skilled workers. Yet the country has record employment. DW asked various industry groups how bad the problem is.

For years, German companies have been warning of a ticking time bomb at the heart of Europe's biggest economy: a shortage of skilled workers.

It has long been a source of anxious debate but it has intensified recently. Companies across multiple sectors say they are struggling to find the workers they need and that the situation is getting worse.

The German government thinks immigration is one of the solutions. It expects to pass extensive immigration reform legislation in the coming weeks which it hopes will make Germany a more attractive destination for foreign workers.

"Germany will lack 7 million workers by 2035 if we don't do something," the country's labor minister, Hubertus Heil, told the Financial Times this week. He shares the belief of many business leaders that the shortage will soon start to sap German growth if it hasn't started already.

A problem in multiple sectors

In many industries, the problem is already very much apparent.

"The lack of skilled workers is one of the central challenges for companies in the German automotive industry," Andreas Rade from the German Association of the Automotive Industry (VDA) told DW. He says a recent survey of suppliers found that more than three-quarters of companies have a severe shortage of workers at present.

It's a similar picture for the German mechanical engineering sector, long one of the big drivers of the country's huge export market.

"The situation has steadily deteriorated since 2021," Thilo Brodtmann of the VDMA trade body, told DW. He says more than 70% of companies in the sector have severe shortages and they expect it to get worse throughout 2023. "The consequence is clear: the shortage of skilled workers is slowing down growth," he said.

DW approached companies and trade bodies from various key sectors of the German economy, with near universal agreement that the skilled worker shortage was either the biggest or second biggest problem facing their sector, matched only by supply chain difficulties.

"Society is in a state of upheaval," Sabrina Pfeifer from ZVEI, a trade body for the German digital sector, told DW, saying the mass retirement of the so-called baby boomer generation in the coming years has created a 'war of the talents'. She says more than 40% of companies in the digital and electrical sectors are having problems filling positions, with the semiconductor industry especially hard hit.

The skills shortage is a threat to Germany's goal of becoming more digitized and technologically innovative says Jörg Mayer from Spectaris, which represents German companies in the fields of optics, photonics and medical technology.

"We have a big problem here," he told DW. "The lack of suitable personnel is increasingly jeopardizing competitiveness and innovation." He says a lack of trainees is a particular concern.

Germany's dual education system, which combines vocational training with apprenticeships, has long been seen as one of the keys to the country's economic prowess. However, fewer and fewer people in the country are taking up positions within it. In 2022, a total of 469,000 people took up apprenticeships, around 100,000 fewer than in 2011.....

....MUCH MORE