Wheat is the star of the show today up over 4%.
From ING, May 15:
The USDA’s first estimates for the 2023/24 marketing year present a soft outlook for corn and soybeans as global supply improves, whilst demand is expected to increase at a modest pace. However, the wheat outlook is more constructive with the market facing yet another fall in ending stocks in 2023/24....*****....Wheat balance to tighten furtherThe USDA expects US wheat ending stocks for 2023/24 to fall by 42m bushels (-7% YoY) to 556m bushels, the lowest in 16 years. The market was expecting a number closer to 602m bushels. US wheat production is estimated at 1,659m bushels for 2023/24, marginally higher than the 1,650m bushels seen a year ago due to the increased area. However, it is still below market expectations of 1,812m bushels.
Global wheat ending stocks are forecast to total 264.3mt for 2023/24, slightly lower than the 266.3mt estimated for 2022/23 but above market expectations of around 260mt. Global wheat production projections were seen at 789.8mt, up 1.5mt from 2022/23 estimates. The increase in supply from Argentina, Canada, China, the EU, and India was partially offset by declining output from Australia, Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan.
The WASDE was somewhat bullish for wheat prices given the large drop expected in US ending stocks for 2023/24. However, developments related to the Black Sea grain deal will also be crucial for price direction.
Wheat supply/demand balance....
662'4 up 27'4 (+4.33%), last
Here are the hourly prints over the last month for the most active July contract:
