Wednesday, December 14, 2022

Dear China, Thanks For All The Stuff But I Think We're Good For Now (U.S. imports plummet)

From FreightWaves, December 12:

Plunge in US imports accelerates; volumes near pre-COVID levels
Descartes: November imports fell 12% versus October, 19.4% year on year

The situation remains far from normal at some U.S. ports. There were still 18 container ships at anchor waiting for a berth in Savannah, Georgia, on Monday. But for the country overall, weakening inbound cargo volumes are bringing imports close to where they were before the pandemic-induced spending splurge.

Descartes reported Monday that 1,954,179 twenty-foot equivalent units of containerized cargo were imported in November. That’s down 12% month on month (m/m) and 19.4% year on year (y/y). It’s only 2.8% higher than imports in November 2019, pre-COVID, and down 37% from the May peak.

Imports typically decline in November versus October — but not by this much. This year’s m/m November drop is the steepest recorded by Descartes since 2016.

https://www.freightwaves.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/12/new-descartes-dec-2048x995.jpg

(Chart: Descartes based on data from Descartes Datamyne)

Imports from Asia fall sharply

Weakening exports from China have been a key driver of lower U.S. port numbers. That trend continued in November. U.S. imports from China dropped by 85,926 TEUs or 11.1% versus October, according to Descartes.

However, China was only part of the story. Import source declines were widespread, pointing more toward weakening demand than China-specific lockdown issues.

Descartes’ data shows a 30.8% m/m drop in imports from Thailand (down 25,281 TEUs) and a 17.4% drop from Vietnam (down 31,489 TEUs). Imports also fell from Germany, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Italy, India and South Korea....

....MUCH MORE

An exercise in validating our priors: "There is something really wrong with China's economy."

Previously: 

"Chinese factories are shutting down two weeks earlier than usual ahead of Chinese New Year"
It really is starting to appear that China could see a recession* caused by slowdowns in their Western customers' economies.

It's only recently that we've started thinking the previously unthinkable:
*November 24: "Copper: What's Your Timeframe?":
....For now and into Q2 2023 the West and maybe China have a recession they have to get through. 

"China’s Covid protests not as meaningful as portrayed"