It really is starting to appear that China could see a recession* caused by slowdowns in their Western customers' economies.
From CNBC, December 4:
Manufacturing orders from China down 40% in unrelenting demand collapse
....MUCH MOREU.S. logistic managers are bracing for delays in the delivery of goods from China in early January as a result of canceled sailings of container ships and rollovers of exports by ocean carriers.
Carriers have been executing on an active capacity management strategy by announcing more blank sailings and suspending services to balance supply with demand. “The unrelenting decline in container freight rates from Asia, caused by a collapse in demand, is compelling ocean carriers to blank more sailings than ever before as vessel utilization hits new lows,” said Joe Monaghan, CEO of Worldwide Logistics Group.
U.S. manufacturing orders in China are down 40 percent, according to the latest CNBC Supply Chain Heat Map data. As a result of the decrease in orders, Worldwide Logistics tells CNBC it is expecting Chinese factories to shut down two weeks earlier than usual for the Chinese Lunar New Year — Chinese New Year’s Eve falls on Jan. 21 next year. The seven days after the holiday are considered a national holiday....
It's only recently that we've started thinking the previously unthinkable:
November 24: "Copper: What's Your Timeframe?":
....For now and into Q2 2023 the West and maybe China have a recession they have to get through.
December 1: "What If Our Understanding Of China's "Zero Covid" Is 180 Degrees Wrong?"
