Friday, November 4, 2022

Fed Balance Sheet: That Giant Sucking Sound Is Liquidity Being Withdrawn

First up, the latest H.4.1 report with the two (huge) QT line items highlighted, November 3, 2022:

1. Factors Affecting Reserve Balances of Depository Institutions

Millions of dollars

Reserve Bank credit, related items, and
reserve balances of depository institutions at
Federal Reserve Banks

Averages of daily figures

Wednesday
Nov 2, 2022

Week ended
Nov 2, 2022

Change from week ended

Oct 26, 2022

Nov 3, 2021

Reserve Bank credit

 8,661,929

-   39,399

+  131,187

 8,642,059

Securities held outright1

 8,273,847

-   27,211

+  216,660

 8,255,836

U.S. Treasury securities

 5,592,979

-   16,398

+   65,960

 5,574,965

Bills2

   296,059

-    2,935

-   29,985

   296,059

Notes and bonds, nominal2

 4,821,246

-   13,442

+   57,470

 4,803,184

Notes and bonds, inflation-indexed2

   375,761

         0

+    4,633

   375,761

Inflation compensation3

    99,913

-       21

+   33,841

    99,961

Federal agency debt securities2

     2,347

         0

         0

     2,347

Mortgage-backed securities4

 2,678,521

-   10,813

+  150,700

 2,678,523

....MUCH MORE

This is the second consecutive week we've seen decreases in both the MBS and treasury portfolios, the second consecutive week of $20 billion reductions and the first week the reductions in the two portfolios exceeded the idealized targets of $60 billion/month, $14 billion/week for treasuries and $35 billion/month, $7.7 billion/week for MBS's.

From the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis' FRED Database, the total assets on the balance sheet, including interest due the Fed, gold, Ccentral bank swaps etc.:


The total balance sheet (mouseover interactive) is down $67.05 billion over the last two reports. This is what we were warning about, that after an extremely slow start since QT began on June 1, market participants risked being lulled and being caught unprepared should the Fed pick up the pace of the reductions:

October 24: This Could Be Dangerous For Your Portfolios: The Quantitative Tightening That Wasn't

October 28: The Fed's Balance Sheet: "Don't look now but there's something funny going on over there at the bank George...."