Sunday, November 27, 2022

Inflation in the United Kingdom

So, when did inflation rear its ugly head?

From Trading Economics (also on blogroll at right:

Scroll down, pick your country, pick your statistic of choice. 
Win prop bets at the bar.
In the example above: Halt economic activity by disrupting production and supply chains with lockdowns, February - April 2020. Pump billions and billions into the bank accounts of individuals with no place to spend it. After a year or so of lockdowns, reopen into even further degraded supply chains, watch that saved up money bid for goods, leading to demands for higher wages to chase the higher goods prices. Watch the cost of services rise as those wage increases are passed through to the end user.
Then note the jump from February to March to April 2022 coincident with Putin's invasion of Ukraine and the initial jump in energy, fertilizer and food prices.
Well, world energy prices are down considerably from March 2022 and it is those countries and regions with little of no energy reserves that are still paying top buck (pound, euro etc).

Lockdowns created the supply and production problems at the front end. Lockdowns forced the savings rate higher, note how little inflation there was in 2020 when people couldn't get out to spend, and then removing lockdowns unleashed all that pent-up demand all at once and boom: April 2021 to February 2022 it was off to the races.
By the bye, here's Brent (again via Trading Economics), right back to January 2022 prices: