From the catastrophe bonds/ILS nerds at Artemis:
After a relatively slow start to what was anticipated to be another particularly active 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, two of the forecast teams most followed in insurance and reinsurance circles have reduced their seasonal storm and hurricane numbers.
But before anyone gets too excited that we might be in for a less impactful Atlantic hurricane season, first it’s always vital to remember it only takes one storm barrelling into a highly populated center to cause a significant industry loss, and second there is still a long-way for the 2022 hurricane season to run.
First NOAA and the US National Hurricane Center, which in May called for a 65% chance of an above-normal hurricane season in 2022, forecasting between 14 and 21 named tropical storms, with between 6 and 10 becoming hurricanes, while 3 to 6 could intensify to become major hurricanes with Category 3 or greater wind speeds.
Updating its forecast numbers today, NOAA now gives a 60% chance of an above-average hurricane season.
At the same time, NOAA’s likelihood of near-normal hurricane activity has risen to 30% and the chances remain at 10% for a below-normal season....
....MUCH MORE (they take this stuff very seriously)
