On copper, I had intended to point out the commercials going long (lower panel), not their usual positioning - long physical hedged with short futures - with the red one at 3.60 but thought there might be more downside. Ditto at 3.40. When the futures spiked down to 3.2730 I actually saw the print but was distracted by something shiny, in this case the divergence between gold and the somewhat more industrial silver and didn't post on copper.
Apologies to loyal and long-suffering readers.
From Marc to Market:
Johnson Resigns, but Still not Clear if He Controls the Timing
Overview: The resignation of a UK prime minister makes for high political drama, but the markets hardly moved on it. Sterling, like most of the major currencies, are recovering against the dollar today. UK equities are higher but are not really outperforming their peers. Asia Pacific bourses rallied, with Taiwan leading the way with a 2.5% surge. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is up 1.4% after yesterday’s 1.65% gain. US futures are around 0.25%-0.35% better. Benchmark bond yields are rising with European 10-year yields mostly 10-13 bp higher. The 10-year US Treasury yield is up nearly four basis points to 2.97%. Emerging market currencies are mostly higher, but the larger than expected rate hike by Hungary has not helped the forint which is trading lower.
Gold dumped to nearly $1732 yesterday and is stabilizing today but remains below $1750. August WTI is up almost 1% but holds below $100 a barrel after falling by more than 9% over the past two sessions. US natgas is also snapping a two-day decline, while Europe’s benchmark is up another 3.75% after jumping 6.7% yesterday. It is up almost 23% this week so far. Iron ore rose 2.3% and more than recouped yesterday’s loss. Copper is also jumping back. It fell by about 5.5% on Tuesday and Wednesday and is up nearly 3.5% today. September wheat is ending a five-day, ~15% slide and is up almost 4%....
....MUCH MORE
As to the Prime Minister, things were getting farcical as the number of junior ministers to resign hit 27 or 28 and he was still refusing to acknowledge reality. Bringing to mind
Black Knight: "It's just a flesh wound!"
- Black Knight: "I am invincible!
- King Arthur: "You're a loony!"
Black Knight: "The Black Knights always triumph!"
As to copper, here's the chart of the most active September contract, the spike low was early morning July 6:
At the risk of making a damn fool of myself (nothing new) that series of prints July 1 July 4 between 3.5550 - 3.60 would be an appropriate place for the up-move to pause, if not reverse.
The fundamentals of oncoming U.S. recession and lack of Chinese homebuilding for the foreseeable future should re-assert their dominance over the technical stuff. Watch the CoT reports or the chart linked in the intro.
3.5350 at pixel time.
re: oil, over time, with the determined political effort in the U.S. to curtail production long ain't wrong, but see yesterday's "Oil: "WTF happened to WTI?"" for more on the shorter term.
