Oil: There Is Something Odd Happening With The Ukraine War Commentariat

Not the one going on with the cheerleaders, WaPo, NYT, Guardian etc., we've been tracking that one for a month and thinking there is always someone who knows more than moi, and knows it earlier, meaning we get a bit nervous. We've reacted by saying:

....From the investing point of view all I can say is to repeat the outro from May 22's Ukraine: "Italy Circulates 4-Point Peace Plan":

President Zelensky has done some bluster and bluff and Poland's President Duda wouldn't like it but if the U.S. and the rest of NATO say take the deal. Ukraine won't have much choice.

If interested see also Friday's: "Whoa: There Appears To Be A New U.S. Plan For Ukraine"

Tight stops on equity shorts and hydrocarbon longs. 

The thinking is that, despite the ten-year old effort to drive hydrocarbon prices higher, first with emissions trading schemes, Cap'n Trade anyone? and then with various administrative and legislative restrictions and now with the boycotts and sanctions against Russia, the downside on news of a ceasefire could knock $30 to $50 off the price of Brent and WTI, possibly $2.00 off Henry Hub natural gas in the first week post-bellum and ditto in reverse for equities.

The moves would be relatively short-lived but violent enough to really wreck your day/week.

And now this:

The so-called OSInt twitter world appears to be going dark. At least temporarily.

And the thing is there are five or six that have said they would suspend tweeting for a few days. Here are a couple, there are more:

I will be off of Twitter due to a Family Situation until at least Monday, if you were wanting to keep up on the War in Ukraine and other situation that may unfold around the World I would suggest following @The_IntelHub @Sierra__Alpha @ELINTNews and @Osinttechnical

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) June 11, 2022

We will not be posting any updates today or for at least the next 72 hours. An explanation will be provided once we feel we can do so without making the problem worse.

— OSINT Aggregator (@AggregateOsint) June 11, 2022

They call themselves OpenSource Intelligence but for the most part they have been pushing whatever story-line that U.S. and more particularly U.K. intelligence wants to disseminate, from the plucky Ukrainians at Snake Island and the Ghost of Kyiv to the "evacuation" of the Neo-Nazis and other militias from Mariupol. This change of tone makes one's Spidey sense go to 11. 

And regarding the evacuation story, it was straight-up lying--to-your-face. The Ukrainians were evacuated the same way the German Sixth Army P.O.W.'s at Stalingrad were evacuated by the Soviets, initially with their hand up and then moved away from the front lines:

In the case of the Germans the 90,000 poor bastards were first marched to Moscow and then on to Siberia.

Eighteen months later the Soviets evacuated another 57,000 who had been captured on the way to Berlin, through the streets of Moscow:

A nasty, nasty business

Tight stops, something may be up behind the scenes.