let me get this straight - the market is looking past the forthcoming rate hikes and recession, to the Fed easing next year because the economy sucks and that's bullish?
— StockCats (@StockCats) June 24, 2022
I have a feeling that lands somewhere in "the nebulous region between mere suspicion and probable cause"
(LaFave & Israel on U.S. v. Ramsey, 431 U.S. 606 [1977])
that there is some sort of misdirection going on that I'm not understanding.
If so, any attempt at analysis of Fed policy and market moves by traditional means, global macro, central bank policy and practice, market internals such as options gamma etc., etc. is just so much blather.
And I keep coming back to the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2019 as the period when things were getting very weird.
More to come (maybe)
