And remember, as we've been saying for years, the GDP Now model tends to run "hot" versus the first BEA GDP estimate. It also ran hot vs the New York Fed's no-longer-published Nowcast with the two tending to bracket the first pass estimate released in the first month of the new quarter.
As an example the final GDP Now estimate for the first quarter of 2022 was positive:
Latest estimate: 0.4 percent — April 27, 2022
The final GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2022 is 0.4 percent on April 27, unchanged from April 26 after rounding. After this morning's Advance Economic Indicators report from the US Census Bureau, an increase in the nowcast of first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth was offset by a decrease in the nowcast of first-quarter real net exports.
While the third estimate/final revision of Q1 GDP from the BEA reported yesterday, came in at -1.6%.
From the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, June 30:
....Latest estimate: -1.0 percent — June 30, 2022
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2022 is -1.0 percent on June 30, down from 0.3 percent on June 27. After recent releases from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 2.7 percent and -8.1 percent, respectively, to 1.7 percent and -13.2 percent, respectively, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to second-quarter GDP growth increased from -0.11 percentage points to 0.35 percentage points.
The next GDPNow update is Friday, July 1. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
