The writer of this article, President of the EU Chamber of Commerce in China and 30+ year residence in China. We found his last piece, linked in May 1's NZZ: "China's Leadership Is Prisoner of Its Own Narrative" to be right on the money.
From NZZ's The Market.ch, June 20:
The latest Business Confidence Survey and a recently conducted flash survey by the European Chamber of Commerce in China show a marked drop in confidence.
Throughout 2021, the story of European business in China was one of high risks and high rewards. Revenue and profitability were positive, but doing business also became more difficult for most companies.
As the rest of the world returns to a pre-pandemic level of normality –with few restrictions hampering business operations and travel – the role China played over the last two years in bolstering European companies’ global revenues looks set to diminish, and recent events have led many to question just how many eggs they are willing to keep in their China basket.
In the Business Confidence Survey (BCS) 2021, the European Chamber of Commerce in China predicted that, after navigating the darkness of 2020, more perilous waters lay in wait for European companies in China.
This unfortunately came to pass.
China’s COVID-19 containment strategy throughout 2021 manifested itself in sporadic and highly disruptive measures that had an extremely negative impact on European companies’ operations. The business environment also continued to become increasingly politicised and reform efforts throughout the year were lacklustre, with traditional complaints – such as market access restrictions, an unlevel playing field and regulatory inefficiencies – still present. Despite this, European companies continued to demonstrate their commitment to China by identifying new ways to contribute to its growth story while advocating for deeper reforms.
At the start of 2022, when the new Business Confidence Survey was conducted, more clouds were already forming on the horizon. Conditions rapidly deteriorated and European businesses found themselves in ever-choppier waters due to both the geopolitical fallout of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on 24th February and the even more stringent approach taken by the Chinese authorities to try and contain Omicron outbreaks, which culminated in mass lockdowns in Jinan, Shanghai, Shenyang and other parts of China....
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