Thursday, June 30, 2022

Headline PCE Inflation at 0.6% For Month of May; Year-over-Year Up 6.3% UNCH vs. last month

But the monthly comparison (April up 0.2%; May up 0.6%) accelerated and real Disposable Income declined.

From the Bureau of Economic Analysis, June 30:

Personal Income and Outlays, May 2022

Personal income increased $113.4 billion (0.5 percent) in May, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (tables 3 and 5). Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $96.5 billion (0.5 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $32.7 billion (0.2 percent).

Real DPI decreased 0.1 percent in May and Real PCE decreased 0.4 percent; goods decreased 1.6 percent and services increased 0.3 percent (tables 5 and 7). The PCE price index increased 0.6 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.3 percent (table 9).

  2022
Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May
Percent change from preceding month
Personal income:  
     Current dollars 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5
Disposable personal income:  
     Current dollars -1.3  0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5
     Chained (2012) dollars -1.8  0.1 -0.4  0.2 -0.1 
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE):  
     Current dollars 1.9 0.6 1.2 0.6 0.2
     Chained (2012) dollars 1.3 0.0 0.3 0.3 -0.4 
Price indexes:  
     PCE 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.2 0.6
     PCE, excluding food and energy 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Price indexes: Percent change from month one year ago
     PCE 6.0 6.3 6.6 6.3 6.3
     PCE, excluding food and energy 5.1 5.3 5.2 4.9 4.7

The increase in personal income in May primarily reflected increases in compensation and proprietors' income that were partly offset by a decrease in government social benefits (table 3). Within compensation, the increase reflected increases in both private and government wages and salaries. The increase in proprietors' income was led by nonfarm income. The decrease in government social benefits primarily reflected a decrease in “other” benefits that was partly offset by increases in Medicaid and Medicare. Within “other” benefits, the decrease primarily reflected a decline in transfers to nonprofit health care providers through the Provider Relief Fund.

The $32.7 billion increase in current-dollar PCE in May reflected an increase of $76.2 billion in spending for services that was partly offset by a decrease of $43.5 billion in spending for goods (table 3). Within services, increases in housing and utilities (led by housing), "other" services (led by international travel), and health care (led by hospitals) were the largest contributors. Within goods, a decrease in spending on motor vehicles and parts (led by new motor vehicles) was partly offset by an increase in gasoline and other energy goods (led by motor vehicle fuels). Detailed information on monthly PCE spending can be found on Table 2.3.5U.

...MORE

And more to come.

Yesterday: