Well, that's pretty much what we're betting on.*
From ValueWalk via ZeroHedge, March 10:
Kyle Bass, Founder and CIO of Hayman Capital just conducted a wide-ranging 30-minute interview with Melissa Francis and made comments on Magnifi Media by TIFIN.
Comments By Kyle Bass On Magnifi Media
- China is absorbing sanctions from Russia–”You've already seen the payment system when Visa and MasterCard abandoned the Russian banks for the payment system, and the Russian banks immediately went to Union Pay in China. If China is providing Russia with a backdoor for its crude for its gas and for its food and what we're witnessing here, I believe it's the bifurcation of the world into two world orders: 1. Is the Rules-based West and 2. Is the Axis of Evil.”
- “We haven’t even seen the highs in crude oil. Crude oil at $130 or $150 will cause a global recession.”
- “ With oil at $130 a barrel - we will have a recession in the U.S. by the end of the year”
- “Stagflation? It’s clear as day that’s where we are.”
- Kyle
Bass says he is using his money and counseling clients to buy land
within 2-3 hours of major center in Texas, Tennessee and Florida (where
businesses and individuals are moving) because of cheap money. “I
changed my whole business to focus on mitigating environmental damage,
which is a great business and also buying land within two, three hours
of these major population centers, where I think you're going to see
these population centers grow and you can you can use judicious amounts
of cheap leverage to stay ahead of stagflation”
....MUCH MORE
They didn't mention his nickels! (he's got 20 million of them):
2021: ICYMI: "The king of nickel is betting big on a green future in batteries"
No, not Kyle Bass, though as far as I know he still has his nickels.*
*2019: "Hedge-fund manager Kyle Bass on decade-worthy investments, trade talks and that nickel collection"
*Earlier this week:
- How Stocks Performed Prior To, And Entering The Last Seven Recessions
- Atlanta Fed Forecasts 0.50% GDP Growth For The Current Quarter
- Kemp: "Western Economies On Brink Of Recession As Russia Sanctions Escalate"
Unfortunately Mr. Bass sometimes gets the timing wrong. The nickels were purchased in 2011 and the 11-year holding period reduces your annualized gains dramatically.
Another example, he bet against the Hong Kong dollar, a trade that will eventually come to pass, but in the interim the fund lost 95% of the $30 million wager.
On the other hand in January Mr. Bass was calling for oil prices well north of $100 when WTI was at $83, which seven weeks later (March 7) traded to $130.50, definitely one for the win column even if his reasoning was less dramatic than war and rumors of nuclear war.
That's one of the funnier aspects of investing, if you get on the right side of the trade, for whatever reason, it is easier to ride that position than it would be to come into it cold.
Plus, your real estate agent doesn't ask whether you were good, or lucky.
