The Department of Agriculture crunches a lot of numbers that are pretty much accepted by the players but their food price forecasts have been running below realized prices for over a year so we haven't been paying them much attention. That may be about to change.
From AgWeb March 26:
USDA now expects food price inflation in 2022 to be from 4.5% to 5.5%, compared with 2021, based on the all-food Consumer Price Index (CPI). The prior outlook for food prices pegged the increase at 2.5% to 3.5%. Not a single or aggregate category is expected to decline.
Food away from home (restaurant) prices are forecasted to increase 5.5% to 6.5%, the third increase in as many months. Last month’s forecast was for a rise of 4% to 5%.
Food at home (grocery store) prices are now forecast to be up 3% to 4% in 2022, up from their previous forecast for an increase 2% to 3% from 2021 levels.
In 2021, grocery store prices increased 3.5% and restaurant prices were up 4.5%, with all food prices up 3.9% versus 2020 levels. The biggest increases in items tracked by USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) were the beef and veal category at 9.3% and the fresh vegetables category had the smallest rise of 1.1%....
....MUCH MORE
