From DTN Progressive Farmer, March 29:
USDA Reports Preview: Corn, Soybean Planting Intentions May Find Competition This Spring
USDA's survey of Prospective Plantings for 2022 and report of Quarterly Grain Stocks for March 1 will be released Thursday, March 31 at 11 a.m. CDT. Given the importance of this year's outside market events, the numbers may not grab trader attention for very long, but they will offer new information to ponder.
PROSPECTIVE PLANTINGS
During USDA's Annual Ag Outlook Forum in late February, USDA released early planting estimates of 92.0 million acres for corn, 88.0 million acres for soybeans and 48.0 million acres for wheat. Dow Jones' recent survey of 21 analysts expects USDA's survey to show producers intend to plant 92.0 million acres of corn, 88.8 million acres of soybeans and 47.8 million acres of wheat -- similar to USDA's February guesses.
Current new-crop prices above $6.00 for corn and above $14.00 for soybeans are higher than last year's new-crop corn price near $5.00 and soybean price near $12.50. However, last year's prices had the advantages of much cheaper fertilizer and fuel costs than what producers face today.
Planting went fairly quickly in 2021 with cooperation from favorable early weather. There were only 1.27 million prevented planting acres for corn, soybeans, and wheat in 2021, the lowest three-crop total in nine years. Other than a possible delay from below-normal temperatures in April 2022, this could also be a year when prevented plantings are low.
In January, USDA estimated U.S. winter wheat plantings for 2022-23 at 34.4 million acres, up roughly 750,000 acres from the previous year. The higher wheat plantings were understandable, given reduced world wheat supplies in late 2021 and cash hard red winter (HRW) wheat prices that were 50% higher in the fall of 2021 than the previous year....
....MUCH MORE
This is the report we were referring to on February 24 and February 25:
There's an outside shot beans could see $25.00 this year, depending on whether the farmers plant soybeans or corn. The supercomputers are whirring away, inputting variables and spitting out profitability estimates as I type. Not kidding....*****Soybeans, which have had a more stately ascent [than wheat]...
have a better chance of holding recent gains and even trading considerably higher as we get into the end-of-March intentions report.
