A couple stories from the house organs. First up novayagazeta-ru run through Google Translate, February 13:
On February 5, Bloomberg published an article about the beginning of the invasion of Russian troops in Ukraine, which after some time was removed with an apology. On Friday, February 11, interpreting the statements of Biden's national security adviser Jacob Sullivan, Bloomberg assumed with a high degree of certainty that the attack would begin before the end of the Beijing Olympics (the official closing ceremony will take place on February 20). By the evening of the same day, the President of the United States had made the matter clear. According to Politico , at a video conference with the leaders of the European Union and NATO, he said that the invasion would take place next Wednesday, February 16.
The event is unprecedented. Not once in the military history of mankind (at least for the last hundred years) has the leader of any state officially announced the start of a large-scale war by another state with an accuracy of up to a day. Europeans, however, were skeptical about such accuracy.
In any case, this message is the peak of the military-political crisis around Ukraine, which accompanies negotiations on security in Europe.
Waiting for death is often harder than dying. The start date of the war is constantly being pushed back. At first it was believed that she would follow the New Year's exercises in connection with the call-up of reservists (they were already celebrating the holiday at home). Later, the invasion was linked to successive exercises organized by the Russian General Staff in the Western and Southern districts as part of efforts to maintain military-political tension during the negotiations. Then the capture of Kiev began to be pushed back to the middle or end of January, to the first half of February. All this alarmism gave rise to normal human skepticism.
And on the day of the "declaration of war" CNN first wrote about what is now called the "clash with the press" (although the material as a whole is not devoted to this). The White House, the State Department, and the military were charged: “The disclosures were mostly in the form of statements from agency representatives, and officials provided little evidence—essentially, they asked reporters to report stories without confirmation.
During periods of global crises, the consolidation of the press on a patriotic basis is the norm. The editors do not double-check the statements of sources that determine the state's foreign policy line. And sometimes they refuse to double-check and even fact-checking. Journalists from warring countries and regions go through the most difficult tests.
Journalists should pay serious attention to the words of the former Director of National Intelligence (government official) James Clapper quoted by CNN: "The new doctrine is the potential for using intelligence as a weapon of information operations." Thus, intelligence is an active participant in the current government campaign, in which the principles of military propaganda come through....
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And Pravda February 9, getting very basic:
Lukashenko voices critical threat to Ukraine
President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko warned Kiev that Minsk would stop supplying Ukraine with fuel and lubricants (mineral fuel, oil, refined products, etc) and electricity should Kiev initiate an aggravation with Russia.
"There is only one danger: the Ukrainian authorities may take a very serious action against Donetsk and Luhansk — the Donbass," Lukashenko said in an interview with Vladimir Solovyov.
"We will cut off all supplies (to Ukraine), not only fuel and lubricants. Electricity supplies will be cut too. If they start fighting against us or against Russia, then we will fight," the president added. According to him, "we, together with the Russians, supply the same amount of oil products to Ukraine."
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky, in response to Alexander Lukashenko, said on Tuesday, February 8, that Ukraine's exports to Belarus were higher than imports. Therefore, a mutual embargo would affect people in both countries.
"We should not go back to the Stone Age," Zelensky added.
However, it is obvious now that in order not to go back to the Stone Age, one needs to change the regime in Kiev, as the current Ukrainian regime is not going to stop attempts to "free" Crimea and Donbass through the use of force.
In order to do this, one does not need to resort to Russian tanks or missiles. Ukraine's dependence on fuel supplies from Russia and Belarus is so high that its army will not be able to move after several days of resistance.
Ukraine's fuel imports account for Russia and Belarus productsAccording to the State Customs Service of Ukraine, in January-December 2021, the country increased foreign exchange spending on imports of petroleum products to $5.614 billion, which was 65.1% higher than in 2020. In physical terms, as many as 8.79 million tons of petroleum products were imported to Ukraine over 12 months, which was 9.5% higher than a year earlier.
At the same time, imports of petroleum products from Belarus amounted to $2.35 billion (41.8% of all spending on imports of petroleum products), from Russia — $1.24 billion (22%), from Lithuania — $0.654 billion (11.6%), UNIAN said.
Thus, 63% of Ukrainain imports of fuels and lubricants come from the Russian Federation and Belarus....
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And as noted on Saturday, should a conflict spread:
When I mentioned www nodes being attacked, that is actually only the beginning. Because everything, in one way or another touches or is touched by the internet, from electric utilities to water and sewage to communications to gasoline pumps to credit cards and crypto and.....I hope you get the point.
Most urban areas are nine to twelve meals away from anarchy and the violence won't come from outside but from inside. A cold, dark, hungry Kyiv could be replicated wherever the internet goes and the downside would be a bit worse than not being able to stream Netflix.
