Thursday, February 24, 2022

Capital Markets: "Russia's Military Action Shakes Markets"

 From Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex:

Overview: News that the separatists were calling on Moscow for military assistance began the risk-off move, and Russia hitting targets across Ukraine has rippled across the capital markets. Equites have been upended. Most bourses in the Asia Pacific region were off 2%-3%, while the Stoxx 600 in Europe gapped lower and is off around 3.5% in late morning dealings. It is at the lowest level since May last year. US futures are sharply lower, and the S&P 50 is set to extend its losing streak for a fifth session, while the NASDAQ is off for the sixth consecutive session. Benchmark 10-year yields are sharply lower. The 10-year US Treasury yield, which approached 2.0% yesterday fell to almost 1.85% today before stabilizing. European yields are mostly 6-10 bp lower. The dollar is rising against all the major currencies but the Japanese yen. The Scandis (~-1.8%) are hit the hardest. Emerging market currencies are under pressure. The Russian rouble is off a little more than 2.7%, while central European currencies are down around 2.5%. After falling by 1.15% yesterday, the JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index has shed another 0.35% so far today. 
Gold is approaching $1975. It finished last week slightly below $1900. Brent crude oil is above $100 a barrel and the April WTI contract extended its advance for the fourth consecutive session and is straddling the $100 mark. US natural gas prices are up over 6% to a three-week high. Europe's Dutch benchmark is up around 30%. The index finished last week around 72.15 and is now around 116.00. Iron ore prices slipped fractionally after rising almost 1.8% yesterday. Copper prices are snapping a four-day decline with a 2% bounce....
****
....Europe

Russian forces attacked multiple targets across Ukraine. Russian forces had surrounded Ukraine on three sides, and Ukraine border guards reportedly acknowledged that it was being shelled from five regions, including Crimea and Belarus. Putin vowed to "demilitarize" the country and replace its leaders. Kyiv, the Ukraine capital was under attack. Putin claimed that Russia does not plan to "occupy" Ukraine. Reports indicate that columns of Russian tanks had entered the Luhansk region, and there is an attempt to take Ukraine's Zmiinyi island in the Black Sea. An emergency EU summit is being arranged for later today and the G7 heads of state will reportedly hold a conference call today as well. Russia's MOEX stock index was down more than 40% at one point and is still off more than 27% today. The rouble had fallen almost 6.5% against the dollar. The Moscow Exchange halted trading and the rouble is now off around 3.5% today to bring it cumulative loss to almost 11% since the US warning on February 11 of a Russian attack....