Monday, October 5, 2020

"Oil firms begin offshore U.S. evacuations as record-breaking storm threatens"

This is the one.
As laid out in late May:
...As for how to bet:
It looks like we're going to have a second wave.
And perhaps Ruth Bader Ginsburg has to get deathly ill to mobilize the base.
And a market crash.
Hurricane season looks to be above average.
Maybe Iran is convinced it might help to shoot at something.
Since that was posted:
  • We have the second wave
  • Justice Ginsburg announced the return of her liver cancer. (July 17)
  • Ruth Bader Ginsburg passes away, September 18, 2020
  • We're looking for a Sept.- Oct. decline in equities following rising yields on treasuries.
  • Putin is trying to stop a U.S. - Iran showdown.
  • And the Madden-Julian Oscillation keeps pulsing eastward at the same time we pass the statistical peak of hurricane season, 3 1/2 weeks ago.
So here's a story from Reuters, October 5:
Energy companies on Monday began evacuating offshore oil platforms as the 25th named storm of the year formed in the Caribbean and was forecast to become a major hurricane before it entered the Gulf of Mexico and threatens the U.S. mainland.

Tropical Storm Delta was expected to rapidly strengthen and become a Category 3 hurricane with up to 120 mile per hour (194 kilometers per hour) winds. It was about 160 miles south southwest of Negril, Jamaica, on Monday evening and moving west at 8 mph.

Delta will bring rain, winds and a storm surge to the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the Florida panhandle beginning Thursday, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

If Delta makes a U.S. landfall, it would be the 10th named storm to do so this year, breaking a record that dates to 1916. Delta is the 25th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30....

Despite slightly cooler Gulf sea surface temperatures than we saw on the statistical peak day, September 10, Delta is forecast to reach Major hurricane status (cat. 3 and higher) and based on the recent trend of rapid intensification we've been seeing as storms approached the coast the last couple years, there is no reason to bet that Delta will follow the forecast below and weaken to a cat 2 storm before hitting Louisiana.

From the National Hurricane Center:
 cone graphic