Thursday, October 22, 2020

EIA Natural Gas Storage Report: A little bit of cold weather and up goes the burn

 First up the estimates going into the report via FX Empire:

According to NGI, “A Bloomberg survey of eight analysts estimated injections to range from 46 Bcf to 56 Bcf, with a median build of 52 Bcf. Reuters polled 14 analysts, whose estimates ranged from increases of 42 Bcf to 56 Bcf, with a median injection of 52 Bcf. The Wall Street Journal surveyed 12 analysts whose estimates fell within that same range, but arrived at a median build of 52 Bcf. NGI’s model also projected 52 Bcf....

...The EIA recorded a 92 Bcf injection for the same week last year, while the five-year average stands at 75 Bcf. Total working gas in storage as of October 9 stood at 3,877 Bcf, 388 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 353 Bcf above the five-year average.....

And from the Energy Information Administration, the report

Working gas in storage was 3,926 Bcf as of Friday, October 16, 2020, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 49 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 345 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 327 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,599 Bcf. At 3,926 Bcf, total working gas is above the five-year historical range. 

Finally the price action in the front (November) futures, two weeks of hourly bars: