Thursday, October 29, 2020

EIA Natural Gas Storage Report

We were thinking that with the very cold temperatures sliding across the northern tier of states (and less markedly, even down to Texas!) we might actually see a pull from storage but that was not to be.

 First up, the estimates going into the report via FX Empire:

...Natural Gas Weather [sic, he means 'Intelligence'] (NGI) is reporting that a Bloomberg survey of six analysts showed injection estimates ranging from 17 Bcf to 39 Bcf, with a median of 37 Bcf. Reuters polled 16 analysts, whose estimates ranged from increases of 17 Bcf to 46 Bcf, with a median injection of 38 Bcf. NGI projected a 42 Bcf injection.

Last year, the EIA recorded an 89 Bcf injection for the similar week, and the five-year average is a 67 Bcf build....

And from the Energy Information Administration:

Working gas in storage was 3,955 Bcf as of Friday, October 23, 2020, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 29 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 285 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 289 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,666 Bcf. At 3,955 Bcf, total working gas is above the five-year historical range. ...

And the price action, one week of 30-minute bars:

The December's are now the front futures with the second-month January's at 3.414  +0.003.