From JSTOR Daily, July 22:
Will I get COVID-19? Will I have a job in three months’ time? Will the shops have what I need? Research indicates that markets might not know best.
By the time you finish this story, you’ll have predicted the future dozens of times. You’ve already guessed from the headline what it’s about and whether you’ll enjoy it. These opening words help you judge whether the rest is worth bothering with. And if you expect it will mention the oracle of Delphi, Nancy Reagan’s astrologer, and chimpanzees playing darts, you’ve already got three things right.
We are all forecasters. We all want to know what is going to happen next. Will I get COVID-19? Will I have a job in three months’ time? Will the shops have what I need? Will I have time to finish my project? Will Donald Trump be re-elected President of the United States?
Yet although we regularly predict the outcomes of questions like these, we are often not very good at doing so....
....MUCH MORE
If interested here is a search of the blog for the keyword: forecasting. There are a lot of posts.
