We agree with Goldman that there's a real chance gas can hit $3.50 by year-end as oil wells shut down and stop their production of "associated" gas. But not yet.
First up, the guesses ahead of the report via FX Empire:
This week’s EIA report, due to be released at 14:30 GMT, is expected to show an injection between 9 and 33 Bcf for the week-ending April 3. As you can see, the estimates are wide this week.The release from the EIA:
NGI reports that a Wall Street Journal poll of 12 analysts showed estimates averaging at a 21 Bcf build. Respondents to a Bloomberg survey arrived at a similar range, with a median build of 24 Bcf. A Reuters survey also was looking for a 24 Bcf injection, with a 9 Bcf to 34 Bcf build range. NGI’s model estimated the injection at a much larger 37 Bcf.
These figures compare with a 25 Bcf increase in storage in the same week last year and the five-year average injection of 6 Bcf, according to the EIA....
...Working gas in storage was 2,024 Bcf as of Friday, April 3, 2020, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 38 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 876 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 324 Bcf above the five-year average of 1,700 Bcf. At 2,024 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range....Above the high estimate, there is still a lot of gas being produced into a market experiencing demand destruction.
The effect on the front futures:
Down 11.4 cents at 1.738.
