Yes, yes, there's something about inflation coming out as well, but seriously, aren't you getting just a bit tired of the transitory crowd switching to "look, look, we've passed the peak" and treating each report as a fresh supply of factoids they can isolate and cherry-pick: "yeahbut used car prices are way down." Yeahbut, yeahbut, yeahbut.
As if they think they are winning points in a junior high school debate.
It's just so tedious.
Wouldn't you rather think about U.S. Sorghum, Barley & Oats Supply & Use?
From DTN Progressive Farmer, June 9:
USDA Reports Preview
USDA Offers New Estimates in Strained World Market
USDA's June 10 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report will offer new supply and demand estimates in a world affected by drought, famine, war in Ukraine, rising energy prices and the threat of higher interest rates ahead. Up against big themes, USDA will offer its best estimates on Friday at 11 a.m. CDT.
CORN
Usually at this time of year, there is a lot of excitement about how planting has gone and what it will mean for the fall harvest. That is true again this year, and we all have questions about how the crop mix may have been affected by this year's difficult planting conditions in the Northern Plains, but that issue won't be addressed until June 30.
Friday's WASDE report will likely stay with the same U.S. corn production estimate of 14.460 billion bushels (bb) in 2022-23, based on the March intentions survey of 89.5 million planted acres and a yield of 177.0 bushels per acre. Looking ahead, there is a chance some corn acres will be lost to excessively wet fields in North Dakota and Minnesota this year. Ohio has also been wet, but has maintained its normal planting pace, so far.
U.S. demand factors could be tweaked for both the old-crop and new-crop seasons, but if Dow Jones' survey of 18 analysts is correct, the changes will be minor. The survey expects USDA to lower its estimate of old-crop ending corn stocks from 1.440 bb to 1.438 bb. New-crop ending corn stocks are expected to slip from 1.360 bb to 1.337 bb. If true, ending stocks in the current 2021-22 season will be the second-lowest in eight years.
The market's demand clues have looked more bullish lately with DTN's national corn basis strengthening to 5 cents over the July futures price. As of the close on Wednesday, June 8, July corn is also boasting a 36 3/4-cent premium over the September contract, much larger than usual and hinting at strong commercial demand for supplies difficult to pry out of current holders.
USDA's world corn estimates face a complicated mix of international factors that make USDA's task even more difficult than usual on Friday. Brazil's corn harvest is just getting started, and on Wednesday, Brazil's crop agency, Conab, estimated 2021-22 corn production in Brazil at 115.2 million metric tons (mmt) or 4.54 bb. USDA's May estimate for Brazilian corn was 116.0 mmt and Dow Jones' survey expects the number to fall to 114.6 mmt as central Brazil has not recorded much rain since mid-April. For Argentina, the survey expects a small decrease in USDA's corn estimate, sliding from 53.0 mmt to 52.2 mmt or 2.06 bb.
For the new-crop season, Dow Jones' survey expects USDA to lower its estimate of world ending corn stocks slightly, from 305.13 mmt to 305.0 mmt, or 12.01 bb. Forgive me for not taking the number seriously, as USDA still contends China will have 8.0 bb of surplus corn in 2022-23, a fantasy that conflicts with China's substantial corn import totals and the expensive price of corn on China's Dalian exchange.Excluding China, USDA currently estimates 3.97 bb of world ending corn stocks in 2022-23, the third-lowest total in seven years. The extra difficulty of estimating corn stocks in 2022 is due to the war in Ukraine. Despite Russia's persistent public relations effort, there are numerous reasons to believe exporting grain out of Ukraine will remain an extremely difficult challenge this year....
....MUCH MORE
On the other hand regarding the CPI report I think a focus on real earnings is a winner and should not only garner an 'A' in rhetoric and forensics but also set us up for a spot on the Senior High debate team.
And if that doesn't work there is always my favorite tactic from Schopenhauer's "Die Kunst, Recht zu behalten"*:
The Ultimate Stratagem (XXXVIII)
A last trick is to become personal, insulting, rude, as soon as you perceive that your opponent has the upper hand, and that you are going to come off worst. It consists in passing from the subject of dispute, as from a lost game, to the disputant himself, and in some way attacking his person. It may be called the argumentum ad personam, to distinguish it from the argumentum ad hominem, which passes from the objective discussion of the subject pure and simple to the statements or admissions which your opponent has made in regard to it. But in becoming personal you leave the subject altogether, and turn your attack to his person, by remarks of an offensive and spiteful character. It is an appeal from the virtues of the intellect to the virtues of the body, or to mere animalism. This is a very popular trick, because every one is able to carry it into effect; and so it is of frequent application. Now the question is, What counter-trick avails for the other party? for if he has recourse to the same rule, there will be blows, or a duel, or an action for slander....
*Thanks to coolhaus.de for keeping the Art of Controversy on the web.
