From the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's GDPnow:
Latest forecast: 1.1 percent — November 1, 2019And today:
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2019 is 1.1 percent on November 1, down from 1.5 percent on October 31. After this morning's release of the employment report by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management, and the construction spending report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 2.3 percent and -0.7 percent, respectively, to 2.2 percent and -2.5 percent, respectively...
Latest forecast: 1.0 percent — November 5, 2019 The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2019 is 1.0 percent on November 5, down from 1.1 percent on November 1. Following data releases by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the U.S. Census Bureau, and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 2.2 percent and -2.5 percent, respectively, to 2.1 percent and -2.7 percent, respectively.Meanwhile, the New York Federal Reserve number won't be updated for a while and so sticks with their November 1 estimate:
- The advance estimate from the Commerce Department of real GDP growth for 2019:Q3, released on October 30, was 1.9%. The latest New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2019:Q3 was 1.9%.
- The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 0.8% for 2019:Q4.
- News from this week's data releases decreased the nowcast for 2019:Q4 by 0.1 percentage point. Negative surprises from ISM manufacturing data accounted for most of the decrease for 2019:Q4....
