September 30
Equities: "Financials Are About To Do Something They Haven't Done In Nearly 18 Months" (XLF; KBE)
The 10 - year is currently yielding 1.697 % +0.024, so looking for rates to back up to (and through) 1.90% is a bit of a contrary bet but if it happens bankers (and longs) will be happy....
October 18
The Broader Market Is Setting Up For A Move Higher
***
...More next week.
Dow Industrial 26,838.49 -187.39(-0.69%)
Dow Transportation 10,504.22 +8.04 (+0.08%)
S&P 2,991.96 -5.99 (-0.20%)
The DJIA closed down 250 that Friday and traded a bit lower the following Monday before reversing even as the broader market caught fire.
October 21
"Boeing Drags Down Dow, Short-Squeeze Sends Small Caps Soaring"
October 22
Chartology: Consumer Discretionary Is Taking On Some Leadership Attributes
Just as we said about the transportation stocks on Friday, you don't see this type of action going into a recession:...
October 30
Fed Rate Cut: Analysts React
Equities will be going higher into year-end.
And of course, take that, and the opinions below with a few grains of salt....
Futures:
**
There was one hiccup on November 5:
San Francisco Fed Head: "SF Fed's Daly: No more rate cuts unless there's a 'material change'"
...We are still quite bullish, sticking with the S&P 500 target of 3300 that we've been touting for the last three years but think the recent-going-on-three-week old rally might be getting tired....Where boredom set in and/or confidence wavered but I did not do the victory dance, thus allowing the market room for more non-hubristic upside.
....And fair warning: I'm thinking of doing a 19-day retrospective and victory dance tomorrow which should put an end to any more upside for the nonce....
November 12
"Is The Entire Yield Curve Wrong?"
The 10-year yield got as high as 1.9710 on November 7 and made a post from September 30 look prescient:...Ditto.
***...Banks and longs are indeed happy with the KBW Bank Index leading the broader market and outperforming by a very big margin. Since October 2 the BKX is up 14.4% versus 6.2% for the Dow Jones Industrials and 6.9% for the S&P 500.
So what now for the broader market?
Higher by year-end, probably enough turbulence between now and then to shake loose some stock from ma & pa investor.
*The Rock Man Syndrome comes from a close reading of Harry Nilsson's The Point!:
...The Rock Man said, "Say, babe, there ain't nothing pointless about this gig. The thing is you see what you want to see and you hear what you want to hear. You dig? Did you ever see Paris?"
"No."
"Did you ever see New Delhi?"
"No."
"Well, that's it. You see what you want to see and you hear what you want to hear."
And with that the Rock Man fell soundly asleep...Double ditto.
And just a heads-up: The 10-year yield peaked on November 7 and the bank index (BKX) topped out the next day.
The broader indexes have chugged higher, but without that impetus.
