Tuesday, November 5, 2019

San Francisco Fed Head: "SF Fed's Daly: No more rate cuts unless there's a 'material change'"

We are still quite bullish, sticking with the S&P 500 target of 3300 that we've been touting for the last three years but think the recent-going-on-three-week old rally might be getting tired.

Starting with "The Broader Market Is Setting Up For A Move Higher" on Friday October 18:
(the DJIA closed down 250 that day and traded a bit lower on the following Monday)
....More next week.
Dow Industrial         26,838.49 -187.39(-0.69%)
Dow Transportation  10,504.22  +8.04 (+0.08%)
S&P                           2,991.96  -5.99 (-0.20%)
To today's 3083 on the S&P it has been a dandy little run.
And fair warning: I'm thinking of doing a 19-day retrospective and victory dance tomorrow which should put an end to any more upside for the nonce.
And from Yahoo Finance, Nov. 4:
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said Monday night that after the Fed’s third consecutive rate cut, she feels comfortable with where the central bank is currently targeting interest rates.
“When you think about what to do next, I think that we’ve got the policy level right currently, given the headwinds we’re facing and the outlook we have against those headwinds,” Daly told reporters on the sidelines of an event at New York University. “This is the right level of policy.”

Daly added that it would take a “material change in the outlook” for her to consider more rate cuts, suggesting the Fed is comfortable with pausing on interest rate changes for now.

‘Downward pressure’ on inflation
At the event, Daly said inflation remains a challenging issue for the Fed, acknowledging that the central bank has undershot its 2% target. Although she acknowledged “downward pressure” on inflation, she said the “inflation anchor” has not fallen yet, suggesting that the Fed can still do more to prop inflation up.

“The new role of central banks is to fight inflation from below the target, not above the target,” Daly said.
Fed officials have recently noted that cutting rates does not appear to be creating the risk of runaway inflation, paving the way for some policymakers to make the case for more accommodation and allowing the U.S. economy to run “hot.”...MORE