"Why Q4 GDP Growth Tracking Estimates Are Spiking"

We try to check in with the Atlanta Fed's GDP Now and the New York Fed's Nowcast a couple times per month and were going to comment on the uptick but here's Upfina to do it better backwards and in heels.*
Atlanta in particular caught the fevah:

...The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2019 is 1.7 percent on November 27, up from 0.4 percent on November 19....

From Upfina November 27:

The S&P 500 is now up 25.28% year to date, making this the best year since 2013. The VIX fell 0.33 to 11.54 which is the lowest reading in a year. The VIX has been below 15 for 32 straight trading sessions. As of Tuesday’s close the 14 day RSI was at 74.4. Anything above 70 means the market is overbought. The MSCI all country world index hit a new record high on Monday because of the rally in US stocks. It’s up 0.25% from its January 2018 high. That’s a sideways correction with volatility added in late 2018. The S&P 500 is no longer stuck in a horizontal correction as it is up 9.3% since its January 2018 peak. Its impressive that this has been the best year for stocks in six years. It’s even more impressive that the one year total return of the U.S. 60/40 portfolio is the highest since 1998. Even though the long bond has rallied in 2019 as it forecasts lower nominal growth, stocks have outperformed....

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... Q4 GDP Trackers To Increase
The latest advanced indicators data are boosting Q4 GDP estimates which have been very weak recently. Specifically, wholesale inventories were up 0.2% monthly in October after falling 0.7%. The September report originally showed a 0.3% decline. The retail inventories report showed 0.3% growth which was up from 0.2% growth (originally showed 0.3% growth). The international trade in goods report showed the trade deficit in October fell from $70.55 billion to $66.53 billion. Exports fell 0.7% and imports fell 2.4%. You don’t want to see trade falling if you’re looking for a strong economy, but purely in terms of GDP, it’s good to see imports falling more than exports.

The next update the GDP tracking estimates will give will be higher or has been higher if it has been revised already. On Wednesday the Atlanta Fed Nowcast was revised to show 1.7% GDP growth instead of 0.4% growth. Net exports went from hurting growth by 0.39% to helping it by 0.2%. This section partially explains this update and why the other trackers will go/have gone up as well. Trade boosted the Oxford Economics Q4 GDP growth tracker by 0.2% to 1.4%.

The top chart below shows the monthly trade contribution to GDP growth compared to the Atlanta Fed’s Nowcast estimate. The October reading shows trade helping GDP growth significantly, while the Nowcast expected a negative impact (before this latest update). The rest of the quarter might not continue at this pace, which means the Nowcast might swing from being too negative, to too positive as it only reacts to data....MORE

Today's New York Fed number wasn't as exuberant:

• The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 0.8% for 2019:Q4.
• News from this week's data releases increased the nowcast for 2019:Q4 by 0.1 percentage point.

but we've found the Nowcast tends to lag the GDP Now figure and is more restrained, with the Atlanta and New York guesses converging after the end of the quarter.

Here's our last visit, November 18:
New York Fed Lowers Q4 GDP Growth Forecast to 0.39%

*the quote about (sometimes mis-attributed to) Ginger Roger.
The actual source was a Frank and Ernest cartoon: