First up yesterday's storage report:
Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
for week ending November 15, 2019 | Released: November 21, 2019 at 10:30 a.m
SummaryThis was the first draw of the season and although pretty much expected by everyone it was larger than the various estimate. Via FX Empire:
Working gas in storage was 3,638 Bcf as of Friday, November 15, 2019, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decrease of 94 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 506 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 60 Bcf below the five-year average of 3,698 Bcf. At 3,638 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range....MUCH MORE
....Today’s EIA report, due to be released at 15:30 GMT, is expected to officially kick-off the withdrawal season. Traders are saying today’s report that covers the week-ended November 15 is likely to show a much larger-than-average withdrawal in the upper 80s Bcf. A consensus of analysts is pegging 86 Bcf as the over/under level.And from the EIA, the Natural Gas Weekly Update:
Bloomberg analysts are looking for a median prediction of 88 Bcf, with estimated withdrawals ranging from 82 Bcf to 99 Bcf. The ICE EIA Financial Weekly Index futures settled Tuesday at minus 87 Bcf. Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI) is predicting a 101 Bcf withdrawal....MORE
for week ending November 20, 2019 | Release date: November 21, 2019
In the News:
Natural gas-fired generation returns to pre-October levels in PJM and MISO
A November cold snap resulted in prices for natural gas rebounding from an average of less than $2.00 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in October to mid-November highs of $5.11/MMBtu at the Tetco M3 hub, located in northeast Pennsylvania in the PJM Interconnection (PJM), and nearly $3.00/MMBtu at the Chicago Citygate hub in the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO). These price increases caused coal-fired power generation to replace natural gas-fired generation starting in late October in both of these regional transmission organization markets. In both PJM and MISO, where there is strong competition between natural gas- and coal-fired generation, relative shifts in fuel prices can influence which type of power plant operates.
Throughout all of 2019, natural gas-fired generation has accounted for an increasing share of power generation in PJM and MISO, averaging 35% in PJM and 27% in MISO. This summer saw record natural gas consumed for generation across the Lower 48 states, supported by relatively low natural gas prices, retirement of coal-fired generation, and increasing natural gas-fired capacity. In October, when regional natural gas prices were particularly low, natural-gas fired generation in MISO reached its highest level for 2019 at 36%. However, as natural gas spot prices in the PJM and MISO regions approached about $2.70/MMBtu in late October, the coal-fired generation share rebounded from its earlier lows.December futures 2.591 +0.024
PJM
The PJM Interconnection spans states located in the Middle Atlantic. Cold weather in that region resulted in the natural gas spot price at the Tetco M3 trading hub to rise from less than $2.00/MMBtu at the end of October to as high as $5.11/MMBtu on November 13. On November 9, the share of natural gas-fired generation in PJM decreased to 34%, its lowest level since May 2019. Conversely, coal’s generation share increased to 31% on November 14, which is the highest coal share since March 2019.
MISO
MISO‘s region covers much of the Midwest and part of the Gulf Coast. For several days in October, the share of natural gas-fired generation was higher than the share of coal-fired generation in MISO, the first time in 2019. With low natural gas spot prices, natural gas-fired generation peaked at a 36% generation share on October 14. In contrast, coal’s generation share fell to 25% on October 12 because of low natural gas prices and strong wind generation. However, by November, lower wind power and higher natural gas prices made coal-fired generation more economically attractive. The Chicago Citygate natural gas spot price rose to nearly $3.00/MMBtu on November 7 after spending most of October lower than $2.00/MMBtu. The higher natural gas prices contributed to the natural gas generation share falling to 22% on November 10, its lowest share in eight months. Meanwhile, coal’s generation share increased from its October average of about 32% to a November average of 38% through November 13.
Overview:
(For the week ending Wednesday, November 20, 2019)
- Natural gas spot price movements were mixed this report week (Wednesday, November 13, to Wednesday, November 20). The Henry Hub spot price fell from $2.62 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Wednesday to $2.47/MMBtu yesterday.
- At the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex), the price of the December 2019 contract decreased 4¢, from $2.600/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.559/MMBtu yesterday. The price of the 12-month strip averaging December 2019 through November 2020 futures contracts declined 6¢/MMBtu to $2.427/MMBtu.
- The net withdrawal from working gas totaled 94 billion cubic feet (Bcf) for the week ending November 15. Working natural gas stocks total 3,638 Bcf, which is 16% more than the year-ago level and 2% lower than the five-year (2014–18) average for this week.
- The natural gas plant liquids composite price at Mont Belvieu, Texas, rose by 9¢/MMBtu, averaging $5.78/MMBtu for the week ending November 20. The price of isobutane fell by 2%. The prices of ethane, natural gasoline, and propane rose by 1%, 2%, and 4%, respectively. The price of butane remained flat week over week.
- According to Baker Hughes, for the week ending Tuesday, November 12, the natural gas rig count decreased by 1 to 129. The number of oil-directed rigs fell by 10 to 674. The total rig count decreased by 11, and it now stands at 806.
Prices/Supply/Demand:Prices at major hubs decline as record-cold temperatures subside. This report week (Wednesday, November 13, to Wednesday, November 20), the Henry Hub spot price fell 15¢ from $2.62/MMBtu last Wednesday to a low of $2.47/MMBtu yesterday. Temperatures were generally cooler than normal east of the Rocky Mountains and warmer than normal across the rest of the country following record cold November temperatures on November 13....MUCH MORE
Soon to be front month January's 2.643 +0.021
