If current forecasts for 2% Q2 growth in the U.S. prove correct it is hard to see how European GDP growth can remain in the black.From the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, June 3:
...GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. Rather, it is best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available data for the current measured quarter. There are no subjective adjustments made to GDPNow—the estimate is based solely on the mathematical results of the model.
Recent forecasts for the GDPNow model are available here. More extensive numerical details—including underlying source data, forecasts, and model parameters—are available as a separate spreadsheet. You can also view an archive of recent commentaries from GDPNow estimates.
Latest forecast: 1.3 percent — June 3, 2019
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2019 is 1.3 percent on June 3, up from 1.2 percent on May 31. A decline in the nowcast of second-quarter real nonresidential structures investment growth from -0.9 percent to -6.9 percent after this morning’s construction spending report from the U.S. Census Bureau was more than offset by increases in the nowcasts of second-quarter real residential investment growth and second-quarter real government expenditures growth from -1.6 percent and 0.7 percent, respectively, to -0.3 percent and 2.0 percent, respectively, after the same report.
The next GDPNow update is Thursday, June 6. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
The scary thing is that GDPNow tends to be optimistic further out and resolves closer to the flash GDP number as it approaches.
I'm thinking rate cuts, eh?
If interested, the New York Federal Reserve Bank's GDP Nowcast is forecasting 1.5% growth:
May 31, 2019: New York Fed Staff Nowcast
- The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 1.5% for 2019:Q2.
- News from this week's data releases increased the nowcast for 2019:Q2 by 0.1 percentage point.
- Positive surprises from prices data and data revisions accounted for most of the increase.
