Monday, June 17, 2019

Agricultural Commodities Continue Higher: Corn Yield Estimates Still Too Optimistic

First up, FinViz with pretty pictures for longs and producers (not so much for end-users and shorts):

Corn 462.00 up 9.00
Soybeans 912.75, up 16.00
Wheat 547.50, up 9.00
And from AgWeb, June 14:
It’s been a long, arduous planting season for farmers across the U.S. Many farmers are wondering what this will mean for yields, ending stocks and, consequentially, corn prices.
“I think the drop-dead week will be this week for planting,” Michael Cordonnier of Soybean and Corn Advisor, Inc., told AgriTalk Host Chip Flory. “If you plant your corn at this time in June you’ve probably got at least a 20% yield drag. If you go at the end of this week that could go up to 30% or 40%. This is very serious, and we won’t know the yields until later in summer.”

So far, the market isn’t reflecting the tough season.

“USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) showed us down 3 million corn acres with a harvest estimate of 91.7%,” Cordonnier says. “I think a 90% harvest for grain is optimistic—it might be in the 88% to 89% and then lower yield. When you combine all these things, you’re going to get a much lower production number.”....
,,,MUCH MORE

And June 17:
...Good Morning from Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for June 17, 2019.

Grain markets continue to surge higher as weather forecasts continue to show heavy amounts or precipitation through significant areas of the cornbelt region. Trade will focus on crop progress made over the last week and updates on crop conditions.

Last week, July corn futures were up 36.75 cents, July soybean futures up 40.5 cents and July wheat futures up 36 cents. Soyoil futures were up 33 points and soymeal up $10.80.

Weekly crop progress report will be released today at 3 p.m. CST. Trade is looking for corn planting at 95%-96% complete (83% last week, 100% last year and 100% 5-year average). Corn condition rating at 60-61% GTE (59% last week). The first soybean condition rating will likely be released on June 24. Soybean planting expected at 80% (60% last week, 96% last year and 93% 5-year average). Hard red Spring wheat rating at 83% (81% last week). Winter wheat rating at 64% GTE (64% GTE last week)....
....MORE