Monday, September 3, 2018

Robots and automation: it will be cheaper to operate robots in US factories than hire workers in Africa

This is a few months old but something that policymakers had better get ahead of.

From the BBC, March 19:

Robots and automation: How Africa is at risk
Within less than two decades it will be cheaper to operate robots in US factories than hire workers in Africa, a new report warns.
Falling automation costs are predicted to cause job losses as manufacturers return to richer economies.
Some analysts say poorer countries could be less impacted by this trend, however the Overseas Development Institute (ODI) suggests otherwise.
But its report adds African nations have time to prepare for the change.
"African countries must not shy away from manufacturing, but instead prepare by increasing access to internet, investing in technical skills and promoting technological innovation," said Karishma Banga a senior research officer at ODI.
    "If done well, automation can present important opportunities for African countries by improving labour productivity in manufacturing," she said.

    It has been suggested that poorer countries will not as be affected by automation because they have less money to invest in it.

    "Our research shows that this is overly optimistic. Currently the cost of operating robots in furniture manufacturing is still higher than labour, but this will not be the case within 15 years", Dirk Willem te Velde, director of the Supporting Economic Transformation programme at ODI, said in a statement.

    ODI's report, Digitalisation and the Future of Manufacturing in Africa, found that in furniture manufacturing, the cost of operating robots and 3D printers in the US will be cheaper than Kenyan wages by 2034....MORE
    If interested see also last October's:

    Needed: 800 Million Jobs For Africa
    By now most of our readers have seen a version of the U.N. projections for world population in 2050 and 2100. If not, here's a post from April with the graphic:

    IMF: Sub-Saharan Africa has Just Completed One of its Best Decades of Growth--It's Not Enough (UPDATED)


    Update below.
    Original post:
    This may be one of the more important graphics you are likely to come across today.
    Africa's population is projected by the United Nations to reach 2 billion people by 2045, 4 billion before the end of the century:

    http://cdn.theatlantic.com/assets/media/img/posts/2014/09/pop_image_1/f03a2d201.jpg

    We followed up with "To Jumpstart Development, Should We Give Africa Bonds a Whirl?"
    The problem, as always, is keeping the money from sticking to the hands of the kleptocrats,
    And whether investment will actually do any good.

    Following on "IMF: Sub-Saharan Africa has Just Completed One of its Best Decades of Growth--It's Not Enough" here are a couple women who have thought about this stuff, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala a former two-time Finance Minister of Nigeria and World Bank Managing Director, currently a senior advisor at Lazard and Nancy Birdsall, former EVP at the Inter-American Development Bank where she ran a $30 billion loan portfolio....
    ...MUCH MORE