The most recent HWRF hurricane model suggests #Florence rapidly intensifies to a major hurricane -- and continues to Category 5 on Tuesday. The track in this model closely matches the official NHC forecast.— Ryan Maue | weathermodels.com (@RyanMaue) September 9, 2018
The maximum intensity could be between Category 3 and 5 along the track pic.twitter.com/1BH5Luqmvc
Thru Wednesday, we'll also be watching Isaac and Helene in the tropical Atlantic along with #Florence ... all should be hurricanes coincidentally.— Ryan Maue | weathermodels.com (@RyanMaue) September 9, 2018
Helene really spins away off the coast of Africa in this GIF of atmospheric moisture from GFS 00z updating now. pic.twitter.com/x2lq5hEFs6
*He knows his stuff and reports/interprets without histrionics.The GFS model has performed poorly with #Florence with unrealistic intensity forecasts & inconsistent/shifting tracks.— Ryan Maue | weathermodels.com (@RyanMaue) September 9, 2018
However, the experimental/upgrade candidate called FV3-GFS is performing much better w/valuable storm guidance. Track is just to thr right of NHC official. pic.twitter.com/faSWXtoNBl
When he was still in school (2008) as a post-doc (Florida State) he was our go-to for the Accumulated Cyclone Energy index, a crude but best-available measure to compare one storm to another or one year's activity to another or one ocean basin to another.
Handy stuff.
Here's 2009's "Hurricane Watch: Worldwide Accumulated Cyclone Energy Index Approaching 50-Year Low. And: A Risky Insurance Bet."and what I think is our earliest mention, 2008's "Active 2009 Atlantic hurricane season predicted. And a Couple ACE Links".
And 2011's "Pacific may hold key to Atlantic Hurricanes":
A deep dive into current cyclone activity.We've found him to be trustworthy on life-or-death/big money meteorology/climatology.
Ryan Maue, mentioned in this story, is one hurricane geek to keep an eye on. He's currently hanging his hat at Naval Research Laboratory Monterey.
