Tuesday, June 19, 2018

Insurance: Property Casualty Looks to Be Extremely Profitable This Year (TRV; CB; ALL; AIG)

If the lowered hurricane forecasts come to pass* and the U.S. tornado numbers continues their decade low trend the P&C folks stand to make some serious coin on the weather related stuff.
Here are the tornado numbers season to date:


And the current sea surface temp anomalies via Environment Canada:

Current monthly precipitation anomaly forecast

Granted there a a couple big if's in the opening sentence. It's possible there could be an EF-5 tornado in downtown Oklahoma City next week but that's not really the way to bet.

And regarding hurricanes, despite the cooler than average sea surface temperature anomalies in the "main development zone" for the long-haul hurricanes that start their run off the coast of Africa and the slightly cool area east of the Yucatan peninsula, this is no guarantee for the height of the season come August-September.

And then there are the earthquakes....

Re/Insurance: "2018 hurricane forecasts reduced on lower Atlantic temperatures"