Friday, August 5, 2016

Natural Gas: EIA Weekly Supply/Demand Report

As noted in last week's report (bold in original): "Now the thing to focus on is the fact that gas in storage is very, very high. $2.891 last , +0.018."

Currently, front futures $2.782 -0.052.
From the Energy Information Administration:

In the News:
Use of natural gas for power generation hits record highs
Consumption of natural gas for power generation (power burn), which has been very high throughout 2016, recently hit its highest daily level on record on July 21, reaching 40.9 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d). Power burn surpassed the 40 Bcf/d threshold on three separate days in late July as widespread hot weather led to strong demand for air conditioning. According to PointLogic data, nine of the ten highest power burn days on record occurred in July 2016, and one was in July 2015. Natural gas consumption for power generation in July averaged 36.1 Bcf/d, according to PointLogic data. This is 2.7 Bcf/d higher than July 2015 and 1.5 Bcf/d higher than the previous high from July 2012.

Increases in power burn, as well as record high storage levels at the start of the injection season and slowing production, have supported relatively low net injections of natural gas into underground storage facilities this summer. Net injections have fallen short of both last year's levels and the five-year (2011-15) average for most weeks this summer, according to EIA's Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report. For the week ending July 29, inventories posted an overall net withdrawal for the first time in 10 years in the summer months. While positive net withdrawals are very common in the South Central region in the summer, they are usually offset by positive net injections in the other four storage regions. During the most recent storage report week, no part of the Lower 48 states was immune to heat, as highs reached into the 90s throughout most areas of the country.

Low natural gas prices and growth in natural gas power generation infrastructure are the main driving factors behind this summer's growth in natural gas use. While the summer season is generally the time of year when power burn is highest, because of air-conditioning demand, gas consumption for power generation has also been rising in the winter, as natural gas makes up a larger share of baseload generation....MUCH MORE
...Supply flat. According to data from PointLogic, total supply of natural gas remained the same as last week, averaging 81.4 Bcf/d. Dry production grew by 1% over the report week, and was equal to its year-ago level. Average net imports from Canada decreased by 9% from last week, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) sendout remained flat.

Consumption falls. During the report week, total U.S. consumption of natural gas fell by 3%, according to data from PointLogic. Power burn declined by 8% week over week; in the previous week, hot weather drove power burn to hit record highs. Industrial sector consumption stayed constant, averaging 19.5 Bcf/d. In the residential and commercial sectors, consumption remained at last week's level, averaging 19.5 Bcf/d. Natural gas exports to Mexico declined 1%....