Friday, August 26, 2016

Natural Gas: EIA Weekly Supply/Demand Report

October futures 2.937 up 0.052 after top ticking at 2.94. Here are the last ten days via FinViz:

From the Energy Information Administration:

Spot prices generally rise. This report week the Henry Hub spot price rose 6¢ from $2.71/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.77/MMBtu yesterday. Price increases near the end of the report week may have been the result of forecasts for warmer weather in the coming days. At the Chicago Citygate, prices increased 10¢ from $2.66/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.76/MMBtu yesterday. Similarly, prices at PG&E Citygate in California gained 10¢, going from $3.15/MMBtu last Wednesday to $3.25/MMBtu yesterday.

Northeast prices mixed. At the Algonquin Citygate, which serves Boston-area consumers, prices went up 5¢ from $2.84/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.89/MMBtu yesterday. At the Transcontinental Pipeline’s Zone 6 trading point for New York, prices decreased 63¢ from $2.44/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.81/MMBtu yesterday. New York prices dropped to a weekly low of $1.48/MMBtu Tuesday before rebounding yesterday.

Marcellus prices increase. Tennessee Zone 4 Marcellus spot prices advanced 14¢ from $1.20/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.34/MMBtu yesterday. Prices at Dominion South in northwest Pennsylvania rose 8¢ from $1.28/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.36/MMBtu yesterday.

Nymex prices rise. At the Nymex, the price of the September 2016 contract increased 18¢, from $2.619/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.796/MMBtu yesterday. The price of the 12-month strip averaging September 2016 through August 2017 futures contracts climbed 9¢ to $3.050/MMBtu.

Supply flat. According to data from PointLogic, total supply of natural gas remained the same as last week, averaging 79.9 Bcf/d. Dry production grew by 1% over the report week, which PointLogic noted was driven by increases in the Appalachian production states of West Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. Average net imports from Canada decreased by 8% from last week.

Declines in power burn drive overall consumption declines. During the report week, total U.S. consumption of natural gas fell by 5%, according to data from PointLogic. Power burn declined by 12% week over week as temperatures remained warm but moderated from extreme heat. Industrial sector consumption stayed constant, averaging 19.4 Bcf/d. Natural gas exports to Mexico went up 4%....
Injections to storage continue at slower-than-normal rate. Net injections into storage totaled 11 Bcf, compared with the five-year (2011-15) average net injections of 66 Bcf and last year’s net injections of 63 Bcf during the same week. Working gas stocks total 3,350 Bcf, 350 Bcf above the five-year average and 275 Bcf above last year at this time.

This week marks the 16th consecutive week that the gap of working gas stocks compared with the five-year average declined. When the refill season began on April 1, working gas stocks were 874 Bcf above the five-year average....
Mean Temperature (F) 7-Day Mean ending Aug 18, 2016