Wednesday, August 24, 2016

Grains: Corn, Wheat Continue Stately Descent

Back on March 16 we noted:
Corn     368-2 down 0-2
Wheat  470-6 down 6-4
We're looking for a drift down into late summer, then a weather related boost....
 That was followed, a month later with:

"One Commodity Trader Writes: "What Is Happening Has Absolutely No 'Reasonable' Explanation"
I was actually thinking about writing something similar just this morning as part of a mea culpa for what's probably our worst call since going long the Germans in '40, corn listlessly drifting down until a La NiƱa related price spike up later this summer....
Here's why, note the price action from the March 31 USDA report to mid-June:

And a slightly less tumultuous trip in wheat:

However, all's well that ends well, we got here although the ride has been bumpier than we needed.
And today's story, from Agrimoney:

AM markets: grain markets cautious after wheat sell-off
Selling remains in vogue.
Grain markets on Wednesday remained somewhat chilled from the battering meted out on wheat futures in the last session - when (December basis) Minneapolis spring wheat dropped nearly 2%, Chicago wheat recorded a contract closing low, and Paris wheat dropped 1.6%, to take losses this week above 3%.
That has somewhat distracted investors who were meant this week to be focusing on the results of the Pro Farmer tour of Midwest crops, results of which have suggested a US corn harvest below the record levels suggested by the US Department of Agriculture.
'Crop is large'
The blame for the tumble in wheat has been laid largely at the door of Statistics Canada, in on Tuesday unveiling a 30.5m-tonne estimate for the domestic wheat harvest - above the level expected by analysts although, it has to be said, only by some 100,000 tonnes.
With Canada a grower in the main of spring wheat, the number was of particular influence on Minneapolis exchange prices.
"Analysts were expecting a number around that level but the confirmation clearly worried the market," said Tobin Gorey at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
"The crop is large - Canada's wheat production has only exceeded the 30m-tonne level one other time in the past quarter century."
"Canada will see a very large wheat crop this year despite early season weather problems," said Terry Reilly at Chicago broker Futures International.
Great expectations?
Still, the extent of the drop in wheat futures surprised many observers, given that the StatsCan number was not far above analyst expectations....

Last Chg
Corn 336-0-1-2
Soybeans 1007-4-6-0
Wheat 426-0-1-4