Friday, August 26, 2016

Morning Beans and Grains: Hey, You Awake?

Last Chg
Corn 331-6-0-2
Soybeans 976-2+0-6
Wheat 423-2-0-4

From Agrimoney:

AM markets: soy eases, despite soyoil resolve. Cotton gains
Just how far can soybean futures fall, if bears put their mind to it?
Corn and, in particular, wheat have already felt a heavy hand from ideas of strong supplies, driving December contracts in both grains to contract lows, or thereabouts.
But soybeans had been holding up reasonably well, until a 3% slump in the last session in the November lot, which notably ended back below $10 a bushel at a three-week closing low.
And this despite a huge week for US soybean export sales which, at 115,100 tonnes for old crop and 1.94m tonnes for 2016-17, "were outstanding and blew away expectations", according to Joe Lardy at CHS Hedging.
Benson Quinn Commodities said that "big demand still lurks under the market", the US Department of Agriculture likely in its next monthly Wasde report on world crop supply and demand to cut its estimate for US soybean stocks at the close of 2015-16 by "another 25m bushels due to the big export programme".
Tour findings
But supply ideas are getting stronger too.
A big hang-up for the soybean market this week has been the strong yields implied by data coming out of the Pro Farmer crop tour of the Midwest (and for which final results will be released after the close of markets on Friday).
Sure, the tour's findings on corn have been somewhat mixed.
Indeed, overnight the tour released an estimate for a western Iowa yield at 187.11 bushels per acre, up from a finding of 181.58 bushels per acre for last year, but for Minnesota, the 2016 figure of 182.32 bushels per acre was down on the 190.87 bushels per acre for last year.
Pod counts
However, for soybeans, the data, given in the form of pod counts per 3-by-3 foot square, have been pretty universally strong....