Wednesday, August 31, 2016

Ag Futures: Today the Bears Switch the Brunt of Selling Onto Soybeans, Cotton

Last Chg
Corn 315-4-0-2
Soybeans 944-0-6-6
Wheat 392-4+0-2

From Agrimoney:
Soybeans seem to have taken over as the price target for ag market bulls.
Not even a $1.8bn purchase order of the oilseed could prevent November soybean futures falling in early deals in Chicago, coming close to a four-month low.
A delegation of Chinese soybean buyers overnight signed agreements to purchase 146m bushels of the oilseed, equivalent to nearly 4m tonnes, at a ceremony in Indianapolis.
However, the trouble with these signing ceremonies is while they once excited the markets, in signalling such huge demand, they are now seen merely as packaging up orders which will, anyway, take place.
So the focus remains on the expanded ideas for the US harvest, now that the key month for the crop is almost over, but with 73% of the crop rated in "good" or "excellent" condition by the US Department of Agriculture, a figure deemed variously by brokers as a 30-year high for the time of year, or even an all-time top.
'Bullish rationale dissolved'
"On a global level, soybean stocks do not look especially burdensome   strong feed demand is likely to keep any excess supply only modest in the 2016 season," said Tobin Gorey at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. 
"Investors though had bet heavily on the prospect of a much tighter global balance sheet. 
"Investors' rationale for such a large position has now dissolved because the US harvest set to restore a reasonable supply buffer."...

We haven't had a soybean chart in a while so here goes:

Hmmm... The obvious support appears to be about 11% lower.