Friday, September 19, 2014

"US land market weakest since world economic crisis"

Ya think?
Here's corn so far this year via FinViz:
We didn't realize the fire we were playing with riding that little upswing from $4.27 in November 2013 to $5.00 in March 2014. But we got out and rather than making the smart play of shorting the darn things waited patiently for an entry point.
And waited.
And waited...and...Sometimes you get lucky.
The last trade was 331'6 down 6'4 and just off the new lowest-since-2010: 331'4.
From Agrimoney:

The US farmland market is at its weakest since the depths of the world financial crisis, with the agricultural equipment sector in even worse health than then, depressed by the slide in grain prices.
A farmland price index compiled by Nebraska-based Creighton University "slumped" to 33.7 this month, down from 41.4 last month.
That represented the 10th successive month of price declines - ie below the 50.0 figure which indicates a neutral market - and was the lowest reading since March 2009, as the global financial crisis was at its height.
And it reflected weaker crop prices, with corn, soybean and wheat futures setting a series of four-year lows in Chicago.
"Much weaker crop prices are taking the air out of agriculture land prices," said Professor Ernie Goss, the Creighton economist in charge of the survey.
'Market has slowed'
The market weakness was underlined by separate data showing farmland prices in Iowa, the top US corn and soybean producing state, falling 3.4% in the six months to the start of this month, to $8,000 an acre.
Year on year, prices were down 8.8%, according to the data, from the Iowa Realtors Land Institute.
The institute's chairman, Kyle Hansen, said that the decline had been "expected".
"We've seen commodity prices decrease and the land market has slowed from the standpoint of how much land is on the market as well as how active the bidders are at auctions," he said.
Lowest on record
The Creighton study also highlighted the extent of the dent to the farm equipment sector from lower profitability prospects, with an agricultural machinery sales index falling to 17.6, from 25.5 last month.
That was the 14th successive month of decline, and the lowest figure since the survey began eight years ago....

Possibly prescient:
Iowa State's Worst Case Corn Prices: $2.89 By 2017